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Long Bets and genocide

For quite some time I’ve been fascinated by a website called Long Bets. Essentially, it’s a site devoted to predicting, arguing, and betting on scientific and socially impacting events.

The idea is rather simple and comes with an attractive ending. People place bets on events they expect to see happen (or not), provide a certain amount of reasoning for their predicted outcome, and then open it up for debate. Others are free to add their opinions, and if so inclined, can bet against the stated prediction. Only, the winner doesn’t get to keep the money generated from the bet rather it is donated to a charity.

Of course, the real kicker is that some of the predictions are as far away as one-hundred years (see bet 137). A few of the more interesting ones include:

8: The US men’s soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series.

9: By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.

10: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.

11: At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.

22: By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.

76: By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.

105: As of March 7th, 2005, Osama bin Laden is dead.

177: By 2010 more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.

196: global warming denialists will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years.

207: By 2150 faster than light propulsion theory will become realized, but not implemented, either through black holes, worm holes or space time warping.

214: The People’s Republic of China will successfully place a living human on the surface of Mars before any other nation.

252: By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.

284: By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.

I’m always surprised that I see so little from my own field. That’s why I plan to throw out the following grim prediction in the near future:

By 2045, a genocide equalling or exceeding the Holocaust will occur somewhere in the Middle East.

Honestly, the fires of genocide are already burning throughout this region, and it’s going to be even odds to see where it starts. Feel free to bet against me if you want, but be prepared to lose the debate and your money.

crossposted

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Janjaweed massing in Darfur

The Janjaweed have been massing in large numbers in Western Darfur near the town of el-Geneina. The Sudan Tribune reported this morning:

The AU source, who asked not to be named, said: “They are massing (north of el-Geneina). … They have vehicles with machineguns on top and they’re Janjaweed. We can’t say what their intentions are.”

The source declined to give numbers, but described the forces gathered as a “huge amount of personnel”, with pick-up trucks, camels and horses, while a U.N. mission spokeswoman said the militia numbered in the hundreds.

The AU source said an African Union helicopter was keeping the force under surveillance and the government was being notified. The Sudanese military could not be reached for comment.

A former rebel movement said a separate Janjaweed force has been attacking villages far to the east of the Darfur region for the past two days, killing six civilians.

That Janjaweed activity was north of ed-Da’ein, a town about 450 km (300 miles) southeast of el-Geneina.

With regular reports of Janjaweed incursions into the refugee camps in Chad, one has to wonder if this is a build-up for a larger push across the border.

The African Union continues to maintain a presence in the region, with approximately 7,000 soldiers. Meanwhile, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir continues to resist pressure from the United Nations to allow forces to reinforce the current AU numbers.

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The Darfur Wall

If you’re thinking of giving money to a charity that would aid the victims of Darfur, you might want to consider the darfur wall. This web based memorial channels money to four different organizations, including Doctors Without Borders, Save the Children, Save Darfur, and the Sudan Aid Fund. In addition, it’s a unique and inspiring way to draw attention to the on-going violence.

Hat tip to Folderol for catching this one.

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Darfur divestment

As Elizabeth pointed out in the comments below, the State of Virginia is pushing the idea of divesting from companies that do business with the genocidal Sudanese government. The Times-Dispatch carried the following (unsigned) opinion piece on Jan 29.

The measure is limited in scope, and no one could question the worthiness of the goal. But it raises the obvious question: Why stop there? Why not apply the same principle to other atrocious regimes in Africa — and the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America?

While divestment might prod governments to do the right thing in some cases, in others it might merely exacerbate human-rights abuses. Isolation has done little to relieve the suffering of the people of North Korea, for example.

While I understand what the author of this piece is driving at, I feel compelled to point out that they’re thinking is utterly backwards (if not completely isolationist).

First, you could easily start with any of the regions mentioned, but the reason you start with Sudan is because it’s the obvious choice. The threat of violence is current, immediate, and on-going.

Second, your assertion that divestment might merely exacerbate human-rights abuses is erroneous at best. While it could cause a backlash, as the Sudan Divestment Task Force points out the Sudanese government has shown an historic responsiveness to economic pressure, while political pressure and diplomacy alone have largely failed to stop genocide in Darfur.

Finally, if you fall back to a position of “why do this and not that,” you’re essentially conceding that you shouldn’t do anything for anyone. This is the same reasoning that spawns this kind of global hot spot, and has left those of us in the US exhausted from our government’s lack of action towards a genocide they’ve already publicly acknowledged.

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Iran asks for proof

The Iranian World Holocaust Foundation has called for documented proof that six million Jews were killed during World War II. The foundation was created after Iran’s controversial conference last year.

“They should hand over the proof for the dossier on the organized massacre of Jews in Europe during World War II to the independent international fact-finding committee affiliated to this foundation,” the IRNA state news agency quoted Ramin as saying.

Considering the vast number of documents that are available (the world over), it seems like this should be easily resolved with a field trip. Of course, one has to wonder what the World Holocaust Foundation will do once they do that.